Canadian unity is a complicated equation but unlike mathematical formulas, the correct formula continually changes as the country and its constituent elements evolve and change, in response to internal and external developments. As a global consensus emerges that the world is undergoing profound climate change, it is important to reflect on how the politics of climate change may impact Canadian unity.

The burning of fossil fuels is warming the world's climate, resulting in rising temperatures. In Canada, the extraction of fossil fuels is occurring primarily in Alberta and to a lesser extent in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland. The extraction in Alberta is particularly contributing the global warming since large amounts of natural gas are required to extract oil from the tar sands. All of these provinces' economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuel extraction. The measures which would have been required under the Kyoto Protocol would have severely undermined their economic interests, at least in the short term. On the other hand, citizens from Canada's non oil- producing provinces are overwhelmingly in favour of the Kyoto Protocol.

At this point, it is interesting to consider the Canadian unity ramifications of decision to introduce Kyoto-like measures with respect to oil and gas extraction.

If the Prime Minister Stephen Harper signs a Kyoto-like agreement, Albertans will likely be extremely upset, but since he is from Alberta and his party's electoral base is in Alberta, it could not be seen as another National Energy Program. On the other hand, if Stephane Dion were to form the next government, he would be elected with support mostly from Ontario and Quebec.

If he signed a Kyoto-like agreement, the dynamics would be very dangerous for Canadian unity. Albertans could well rise in defiance of the national government and form a serious separatist movement. From a Canadian unity perspective therefore, uni.ca hopes that Stephen Harper's Conservatives will be the party to address climate change in a serious way. If they do not, and the Liberals are forced to do so, it could be very bad news for Canadian unity.