Global Warming has taken a bit of a public relations beating this past decade, but in a country like Canada, "National Warming" has kind of a nice ring to it. Never mind the weather; it looks like a warm front in our national debate may be in the forecast.

There is a lot being written about the Quebec nation issue, but we would like to highlight three important points about the recent news grabber by the Prime Minister:

1. This is a new view from Harper

The government motion states that the House of Commons should "recognise that Quebecers constitute a nation within a united Canada". Until this moment, Harper seemed firmly in the camp of hard-line English Canada that says Quebec is an equal province, full-stop.

A number of public statements support this view of Harper, some of which are in the uni.ca blog. You can also link to Harper Letter to Committee for Canadian Unity to see what Harper wrote some time ago to one of the precursor groups of our organization.

But now he is Prime Minister, also thanks in some part to surprise gains in Quebec. He has new objectives, powers and constraints. We also hope he has gained in wisdom and statesmanship. So, rather than being a tactical scheme, we hope that this departure represents a genuine evolution in Harper's views towards Quebec.

If that is indeed the case, then this move bodes well for Canada in a general sense. It means that the views of a hardliner in English Canada can soften. This might suggest that the views of hardliners in the Quebec separatist camp could also soften and that moderates on both sides will grow in numbers alongside greater opportunities for consensus and cooperation.

We at uni.ca have always felt that nation-building is a perpetual process that requires both persistence and patience. It is clear that the only way forward is and always has been to keep open to the possibility of a change in views while enemies slowly become friends.

2. This is a conceptual win for federalists

With this move, Harper takes back a tool from the separatists and redefines some of the key terms in the debate in favour of federalism.

We have argued in the past and again quite recently that the nation debate is often one of semantics that are being abused for legalistic purposes. Harper's motion may succeed in firmly establishing the separation of "nation" from "state" in the mind of Quebecers and Canadians. This can be a powerful concept; that Quebec can revel in their nationhood inside Canada, that nation and state are not synonymous or coterminous.

Mr. Duceppe may think he's clever in saying "We are delighted by the fact that Canada will become the first country to officially recognise the Quebec nation,". He may not realize that this isn't necessarily a gateway drug leading to independence, that recognition as a nation inside Canada may be enough of a high for most Quebecois.

Which then begs the question of the real relevance of the motion beyond the symbolic. Some constitutional experts suggest that there are few legal implications, but Boisclair is already saying there has to be follow-up, that "The constitution, the fundamental law, must reflect this reality."

3. This is not (yet) a Constitutional issue

Commentators are linking the Harper motion to Ignatieff's recent musings. Some might be forgiven for taking a positive view of Harper's nation donation and a negative view of Ignatieff's.

The main difference is that Harper has explicitly stated his view that his motion does not require opening the Constitution, whereas Ignatieff clearly telegraphed that trajectory in his game plan.

Uni.ca has favoured recognition of Quebec for quite some time, as seen in our recent white paper and we have also advocated constitutional changes when the situation is ripe. But we also recognize that opening the Constitution at any time is a high risk move that can easily backfire.

The current environment is uncertain to provide winning conditions for a federalist constitutional project, but then is the environment getting better or is it worsening? Perhaps this is as good as it gets. Just like that Thursday night guessing game at the gas pump, sometimes a decision is required or you'll simply run out of gas.

For the moment, it appears that the next few chess moves will go like this:

• separatists support the motion and Quebec is recognized as a nation;
• separatists claim that this is a new situation and so requires new powers for Quebec;
• Harper says no, this is just stating a reality, Quebec is a nation, and nothing is new, so no new powers, you are an equal province, full-stop, let's talk about something else (memories of the way we were, la, la, la);
• separatists don't want to talk about something else; they want to build on recognition to demand new powers and a new contract with their partner, the nation of Canada;
• Harper says please go away now, leave me alone, let's talk about the arctic;
• separatists are really good at not going away or giving up on an issue.

When we get to that point, we hope that federalists maintain some discipline and stick to recognition of a nation not implying new powers. The Quebec nation will already have a very strong political vehicle called the "Province of Quebec" with all sorts of impressive powers to affect their self-determination. The Province of Quebec has more powers than many countries have, including those in the European Union.

The determining factor of whether this move by Harper will end where he intended or lead to where Duceppe hopes is the view of the voters in Quebec.

If a good portion of Quebeckers take this motion as a meaningful recognition of their distinct nation and also accept that their nation has a good home in Canada, then we might have smoother sailing ahead.

If the separatists win the coming air war and move the people of Quebec on a path of incremental demands, then we might have a storm looming.

In closing, the national outlook is certainly unsettled, turbulent. But let's make this National Warming belie the adage that "everyone talks about the weather, but no-one does anything about it". Looks like the door is now open for a more active weatherman. Emperor Harper has new clothes and they look fine to us; he's borrowed a tool from his cranky neighbour that we hope he doesn't return any time soon; and he looks like he has the resolve to keep the constitution closed.

Now if he can only stay in power . . .